Thursday, September 16, 2010 Publisher: Íslandsbanki Research - greining@islandsbanki.is - Resp.Editor: Ingólfur Bender

Third IMF review on the agenda

According to a press release published by the Ministry of Economic Affairs yesterday, the third review of Iceland's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be discussed by the Executive Board of the Fund on 29 September.
The third review was originally scheduled for mid-July, but the Supreme Court's June 2010 judgments on exchange rate-linked loans delayed the review somewhat. On 29 September, the Executive Board of the IMF will discuss the third review, following which the next tranche of the loan facility from the Fund will be disbursed if the review is successful. This part of the loan, amounting to USD 160 million, will be used to bolster the Central Bank of Iceland's (CBI) foreign exchange reserves. The foreign reserves will therefore increase by a corresponding amount, and they could increase even more, as the third tranche of the loan facility from the Nordic countries, in the amount of EUR 444 million, should be released following the third review; however, actual disbursement hinges on developments in the Icesave dispute. If that instalment of the Nordic facility is paid out, the foreign exchange reserves will have expanded by a large margin, which should bring the removal of the capital controls closer.

Icesave in the limelight yet again
When the second review of the SBA took place in April, it was stated clearly in the staff report issued concurrent with the review that bilateral program financing from the Nordic countries has been linked to progress towards resolving the Icesave issue. In spite of this, the Nordic countries have already disbursed two instalments of the loan facility to Iceland, totalling EUR 890 million of the EUR 1,775 bn negotiated, or about half of the total amount. It will be most interesting to see whether the next tranche is paid out by the Nordic countries following the third review, as Icesave discussions are in progress even though the matter is still unresolved, and a solution could be on the horizon. It remains to be seen whether our Nordic neighbours will be satisfied with seeing discussions underway and a solution perhaps in sight. It would be most fascinating by far if the Nordic facility were disbursed without any explanation whatsoever and without a firm resolution of the dispute, as the IMF took a relatively stern tone on the issue in the staff report from April.

Once the third review is complete, another four remain, with the last scheduled for August 2011, when the programme supported by the SBA will be formally concluded.


Iceland's sovereign CDS spread dips below 300


The CDS spread on the Republic of Iceland's euro-denominated debt has been easing downwards recently. While the decline is not a dramatic one, the spread broke the 300-point barrier yesterday, ending the day at 299 bp (2.99%), 11 points below last week's level, according to data from Bloomberg. Ireland's CDS spread, on the other hand, is near an all-time high. It stood at 393 as of yesterday's market close, only marginally below its record of 396 in February 2009, when, incidentally, Iceland's CDS spread was a staggering 1,049 bp. Risk premia in Western Europe averaged 176 at the end of yesterday, broadly in line with the levels of the past few days. Iceland is fourth-highest among Western European countries for which CDS spreads are traded. The three countries topping Iceland at present are Greece (892 bp), Ireland (393 bp), and Portugal (349 bp).

News
OMX ICEX, 9/15/2010
Category Volume
Bonds 1
Equities 9,719
Total 9,721
Icelandic Bonds, 9/15/2010
ID Vol. Yield Day.ch.
HFF150914 529 1.66% 7
HFF150224 1,168 2.37% 1
HFF150434 946 2.48% 2
HFF150644 582 2.48% 3
RIKB 11 0722 17 0
RIKB 12 0824 577 4.00% -7
RIKB 13 0517 1,120 3.99% -7
RIKB 19 0226 1,776 5.21% -4
RIKB 25 0612 1,972 5.32% 2
REIBOR Market, 9/15/2010
Term REIBID REIBOR
O/N 5.50% 6.00%
SW 5.50% 6.00%
1M 5.80% 6.30%
3M 5.30% 5.80%
6M 5.00% 5.50%
12M 4.50% 5.00%
Exchange Rates, 9/15/2010
  pr.ISK 3m.Libor 3m.fwd.
USD 116.11 0.29% 1.6
GBP 181.28 0.73% 2.2
JPY 1.36 0.23% 0.0
EUR 151.99 0.83% 1.8
Vt. ISK 205.77 0.82% 2.5
Currency Crosses, 9/16/2010
  EUR GBP USD
GBP 0.838    
USD 1.309 1.561  
CHF 1.311 1.564 1.001
JPY 112.104 133.707 85.639
NOK 7.946 9.477 6.070
SEK 9.213 10.989 7.038
Icelandic Equities, 9/15/2010
ID Vol. Yield Day.ch.
OSSR 1 212.00 -0.47%
FO-EIK 0 68.00 0.00%
FO-BANK 0 139.00 0.00%
MARL 0 94.50 0.00%
FO-AIR 0 119.00 0.00%
Volume in ISK m.
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