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Third IMF review on the agenda
According to a press
release published by the Ministry of Economic Affairs yesterday, the third
review of Iceland's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) will be discussed by the Executive Board of the Fund
on 29 September. The third review was originally scheduled for
mid-July, but the Supreme Court's June 2010 judgments on exchange
rate-linked loans delayed the review somewhat. On 29 September, the
Executive Board of the IMF will discuss the third review, following which
the next tranche of the loan facility from the Fund will be disbursed if
the review is successful. This part of the loan, amounting to USD 160
million, will be used to bolster the Central Bank of Iceland's (CBI)
foreign exchange reserves. The foreign reserves will therefore increase by
a corresponding amount, and they could increase even more, as the third
tranche of the loan facility from the Nordic countries, in the amount of
EUR 444 million, should be released following the third review; however,
actual disbursement hinges on developments in the Icesave dispute. If that
instalment of the Nordic facility is paid out, the foreign exchange
reserves will have expanded by a large margin, which should bring the
removal of the capital controls closer.
Icesave in the limelight yet again When the second
review of the SBA took place in April, it was stated clearly in the staff
report issued concurrent with the review that bilateral program financing
from the Nordic countries has been linked to progress towards resolving
the Icesave issue. In spite of this, the Nordic countries have already
disbursed two instalments of the loan facility to Iceland, totalling EUR
890 million of the EUR 1,775 bn negotiated, or about half of the total
amount. It will be most interesting to see whether the next tranche is
paid out by the Nordic countries following the third review, as Icesave
discussions are in progress even though the matter is still unresolved,
and a solution could be on the horizon. It remains to be seen whether our
Nordic neighbours will be satisfied with seeing discussions underway and a
solution perhaps in sight. It would be most fascinating by far if the
Nordic facility were disbursed without any explanation whatsoever and
without a firm resolution of the dispute, as the IMF took a relatively
stern tone on the issue in the staff report from April.
Once the third review is complete, another four remain, with the last
scheduled for August 2011, when the programme supported by the SBA will be
formally concluded.
Iceland's sovereign CDS spread
dips below 300
 The CDS spread on the
Republic of Iceland's euro-denominated debt has been easing downwards
recently. While the decline is not a dramatic one, the spread broke the
300-point barrier yesterday, ending the day at 299 bp (2.99%), 11 points
below last week's level, according to data from Bloomberg. Ireland's CDS
spread, on the other hand, is near an all-time high. It stood at 393 as of
yesterday's market close, only marginally below its record of 396 in
February 2009, when, incidentally, Iceland's CDS spread was a staggering
1,049 bp. Risk premia in Western Europe averaged 176 at the end of
yesterday, broadly in line with the levels of the past few days. Iceland
is fourth-highest among Western European countries for which CDS spreads
are traded. The three countries topping Iceland at present are Greece (892
bp), Ireland (393 bp), and Portugal (349 bp).
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|
| OMX ICEX, 9/15/2010 |
| Category |
Volume |
| Bonds |
1 |
| Equities |
9,719 |
| Total |
9,721 |
| REIBOR Market, 9/15/2010
|
| Term |
REIBID |
REIBOR |
| O/N |
5.50% |
6.00% |
| SW |
5.50% |
6.00% |
| 1M |
5.80% |
6.30% |
| 3M |
5.30% |
5.80% |
| 6M |
5.00% |
5.50% |
| 12M |
4.50% |
5.00% |
| Exchange Rates, 9/15/2010
|
| |
pr.ISK |
3m.Libor |
3m.fwd. |
| USD |
116.11 |
0.29% |
1.6 |
| GBP |
181.28 |
0.73% |
2.2 |
| JPY |
1.36 |
0.23% |
0.0 |
| EUR |
151.99 |
0.83% |
1.8 |
| Vt. ISK |
205.77 |
0.82% |
2.5 |
| Currency Crosses, 9/16/2010
|
| |
EUR |
GBP |
USD |
| GBP |
0.838 |
|
|
| USD |
1.309 |
1.561 |
|
| CHF |
1.311 |
1.564 |
1.001 |
| JPY |
112.104 |
133.707 |
85.639 |
| NOK |
7.946 |
9.477 |
6.070 |
| SEK |
9.213 |
10.989 |
7.038 |
| Icelandic Equities,
9/15/2010 |
| ID |
Vol. |
Yield |
Day.ch. |
| OSSR |
1 |
212.00 |
-0.47% |
| FO-EIK |
0 |
68.00 |
0.00% |
| FO-BANK |
0 |
139.00 |
0.00% |
| MARL |
0 |
94.50 |
0.00% |
| FO-AIR |
0 |
119.00 |
0.00% |
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